Wildfire losses in the U.S. are increasing, but the risk is still considerably smaller than hurricanes, according to a new KCC white paper.

While we usually think of California and other western states—especially since the devastating LA wildfires in January—KCC said that nearly every state in the U.S. has some exposure to wildfire losses.

The cost to build the same single-family home has more than doubled since 2011, KCC noted. Combine these cost increases with the growing number of structures in areas prone to severe weather, and every loss seems like a new record.

Climate change is impacting both the frequency and severity of wildfires, KCC said, noting that the number of large wildfires—specifically those engulfing over 10,000 acres—has more than doubled since 1985.

KCC analysis shows that the loss potential from wildfires has nearly doubled during this 30-year time frame, as well.

Despite this increased risk, KCC said wildfire losses are still nowhere near hurricane losses. While both risks are accelerating due to climate change—about a 3% increase in loss potential for wildfires per year compared to 0.5% for hurricanes, KCC said it will take decades for annual expected wildfire losses to catch up with hurricane losses.

KCC said wildfires can be difficult to model because of the “dynamic nature of fire spread and the sensitivity of the direction and rate of spread to many variables, including winds, topography, moisture, and vegetation.” However, the catastrophe modeling firm said its KCC Wildfire Model accurately predicted the loss from the Palisades and Eaton fires in real time while they were occurring and, more importantly, years before they happened.

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Catastrophe
Natural Disasters
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Wildfire
Hurricane