According to projections from scientists at the UK’s Met Office and University of Exeter, in a scenario with very high levels of greenhouse gases, global warming will amp up the North Atlantic Oscillation to roughly three times larger than ever recorded by the end of the century.

Such an intensification of the northern European weather pattern would make the region much more fertile for severe storms to form during the winter, said lead researcher Doug Smith, who heads long-term climate prediction at the UK’s Met Office.

“Stormy, wet conditions will be more frequent,” he said. “It doesn’t mean we won’t get years with the opposite, but they’re just expected to be more frequent.”

Computer simulations run by the researchers showed the North Atlantic atmospheric pattern is weaker in lower emissions scenarios. Smith said this means reducing emissions is a clear path toward limiting future risks of damage from storms fueled by the pattern.

While there may be annual variability, the cost of damage from weather- and climate-related disasters is expected to increase across Europe, the planet’s fastest-warming continent. Climate-related storms and flooding alone left European Union countries with €35.3 billion in economic losses in 2023, a study by the European Environment Agency found.

The North Atlantic Oscillation is a see-saw variation in atmospheric air pressures roughly situated between the Azores and Iceland. It has influence over other crucial systems for Europe’s weather, including the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the ocean current that brings warmth to northeastern parts of the continent.

A previous study from the UK’s Met Office and University of Exeter disputed a long-held fear that climate change will lead to a quick, total collapse of the AMOC. The findings in this latest research further back that view, according to Smith.

Copyright 2025 Bloomberg.

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