California’s Snowpack Data Likely Signals Another Fire-Prone Summer

California is emerging from its wettest time of the year with new fire and drought risks.

The state is scheduled to measure the snowpack amassed over winter on Tuesday — April 1 is the typical peak point before springtime melting. This data will help determine how much water will be available for residents and agriculture.

The above-average and near-normal snow conditions in mountains in northern and central California should give the state enough water to meet its needs for summer and fall, according to Daniel Swain, a climatologist at the University of California Los Angeles.

For California, however, this isn’t all good news. More water helps grasses and shrubs grow more abundantly across the state’s hills and mountains. These smaller plants dry out quicker when the rain stops and temperatures rise becoming what scientists call “fine fuels” that can burn quickly and easily spread embers on the winds, causing trees to also catch fire. In addition, the extra moisture also helps invasive plant species to thrive as well, meaning there is more fuel to burn.

The snow-covered San Gabriel mountain range past the downtown Los Angeles skyline in March 2023. Photographer: Eric Thayer/Bloomberg

At the same time, nearly 40% of California is in drought, with the driest conditions occurring across the southern and eastern portions along the border with Arizona, according to the US Drought Monitor. Long-range forecasts for the state suggest spring and early summer may bring hotter and drier conditions than normal, which would also raise the fire risks, Swain said.

This is the third year in a row where California has found itself in such a potentially combustible situation — where wet winters led to more vegetation growing across its landscape. Already this year, devastating fires around Los Angeles killed at least 29. The Pacific Palisades and Eaton blazes were among the most destructive in state history, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, commonly called Cal Fire.

California is grappling with the harsh realities of climate change, driven by runaway greenhouse gas emissions that have made the state hotter, drier and more fire prone. Climate change made Southern California’s dangerous wildfire conditions in early January 35% more likely than they would have been before the industrial era, according to a analysis by the scientific group World Weather Attribution.

In a recent webinar Dan McEvoy, a researcher at the Western Regional Climate Center, said many areas in the state experienced their top 10% warmest winters in records going back to 1895.

Top photo: The snow-covered San Gabriel mountain range past the downtown Los Angeles skyline after a winter storm in Los Angeles, California, on Thursday, March 2, 2023.

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