Florida’s elected leaders have long touted the “1,000 people a day” moving into the state. But that trend shows signs of slowing, with people moving out of the Sunshine State due to surging housing and property insurance costs, according to a report from Cotality.

Economists with Cotality, formerly known as CoreLogic, the property analytics firm, said new data show that mortgage applications are declining in Florida, while rising in neighboring Southeast states.

“Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas are receiving 48% of mortgage applications for those moving out of the Sunshine State,” the report noted. “And that choice isn’t random. Florida’s generally less-expensive neighbors have comparatively lower exposure to natural hazards.”

The “Florida On the Brink” report, released Tuesday, argues that Florida’s steady growth over the last few decades may continue, but sharply rising housing prices, along with recent increases in homeowners insurance premiums, a pullback by some insurers, and the threat of more hurricanes, is changing the pattern.

“For now, Florida’s growth story isn’t over. But if affordability worsens and storm risks intensify, today’s trickle of outbound movers could become a flood,” the analysis concluded.

Florida insurance industry advocates may disagree with some of the report’s findings. While average property insurance rates soared over the last decade, a number of carriers have filed for small decreases or no increases since state lawmakers limited incentives for excessive claims litigation in 2022. At least 13 insurance companies or new subsidiaries have entered the Florida market in the last two years, offering more competition on premiums and availability of coverage, the state Office of Insurance Regulation has reported.

The full Cotality report can be seen here.