Japan Warns Potential Megaquake Could Kill Nearly 300,000

A long-feared megaquake off Japan’s southern coast could result in almost 300,000 deaths, according to a new model released by the government.

In the worst-case scenario, a megaquake in the Nankai Trough would destroy 2.34 million buildings and kill 298,000 people, a Cabinet Office panel said in a report Monday. There’s an 80% chance of such a quake occurring within 30 years, according to a government estimate from January.

The Cabinet Office’s model assumes a magnitude-9 level earthquake originating in the sea between Shizuoka prefecture and Miyazaki prefecture, resulting in tsunami of up to 30 meters (96 feet).

The new maximum death toll is slightly below the 323,000 the government projected in 2012 and 2013, due to improved disaster prevention measures like building reinforcement and sea walls, according to the report.

Japan is among the world’s most earthquake-prone countries. The last magnitude-9 quake, which hit off the coast of Fukushima in March 2011, killed more than 15,000 people, according to government statistics.

Last year the government issued a warning for an elevated risk of a megaquake around the Nankai Trough, where the Philippine sea plate subducts under the Eurasian continental plate.

The first-ever warning of its type was issued after a smaller quake off Kyushu and prompted rail operators to run trains at reduced speeds, while some factories temporarily halted production. The warning was called off after about a week.

Photograph: The coastline close to the Nankai Trough in Miyazaki, Japan. Photo credit: Kyodo News/Getty Images

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